EP101 Cyber 5 - Black Friday Results & Insights for Omnichannel Holiday Success
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[00:00:06] Joshua Warren: Hi, everybody. Welcome to this episode of Commerce Today. I am Joshua Warren, the CEO of Creatuity, and we are going to talk about Black Friday and Cyber Monday and Cyber 5 and what the results were this year and how you can adapt for the rest of the holiday season. So a few episodes back, we talked about our holiday shopping predictions and Adobe's holiday shopping predictions.

[00:00:28] Joshua Warren: That was back in episode 97. That could be a good one to go watch, but I'm going to also spoil it for you a little bit. Most of those projections were accurate and, some, were even a little bit too conservative. So. Dive into that and a lot more. And I'm really taking this from the viewpoint of an omni channel retailer.

[00:00:48] Joshua Warren: So if you're someone out there that is working with a multi store retailer at a multi store retailer, this episode is for you because there's a lot of ships this year in this data. That shows what you need to be [00:01:00] planning for next year. So diving right in, cyber five, that is the five days from Thanksgiving through to cyber Monday.

[00:01:08] Joshua Warren: There was a record breaking 41. 1 billion in online sales. And if you're trying to follow along, especially the audio podcast to all these numbers might get a little tricky. I'm going to have links in the show notes, wherever you're watching this episode to the original sources where you can see all this data, but basically.

[00:01:25] Joshua Warren: A whole lot of money was made in online sales on, the Cyber 5 period. Thanksgiving itself was 6. 1 billion. That's up almost 9 percent from last year. the predictions from Adobe and others were exactly right. They predicted that Thanksgiving would be about 6. 1 billion. And it was, many, we're going to see that several times throughout this.

[00:01:45] Joshua Warren: And it's not magic. It's just a really good reminder of why working with someone that understands analytics and, data science is so important. Because none of this really ought to be a surprise to most of us because there's such good data these [00:02:00] days to see how consumers spent last year, the year before those different trends, and to do that analysis on how much they've spent so far this year and project out those changes and those new numbers.

[00:02:11] Joshua Warren: So moving on though, to black Friday, black 10 percent new record for black Friday was almost 11 billion in sales. Also, and again, this is Adobe's prediction was dead on. also Joe Baker, the CEO of ShipperHQ posted earlier today on LinkedIn and, shared that from what we can see on Black Friday, customers did double the traffic they did last year, a significant rise in traffic.

[00:02:35] Joshua Warren: And that's Interesting to me because Shipper HQ is a shipping solution that works with a lot of different size, online retailers from some of the smaller ones to some of the bigger ones as well. and this gives us a good insight into what's happening off Amazon, off Walmart, because a lot of this increase and a lot of these sales, of course, were on Amazon and Walmart.

[00:02:56] Joshua Warren: And so if you're an independent retailer and you're trying to figure out what [00:03:00] should my data look like, what sort of increase should I expect? having this data from places like Shipper HQ is so helpful. So seeing that, traffic to many retailer sites doubled on Black Friday was super interesting.

[00:03:12] Joshua Warren: then Saturday and Sunday, were 5. 3 billion in online sales on Saturday, 5. 6 billion in online sales on Sunday. Thought it was interesting that Sunday was actually up a little bit higher, especially given that. Saturday, small business Saturday. There were so many promotions for it. And Sunday was just Sunday.

[00:03:29] Joshua Warren: and yet it edged out Saturday, but the really exciting, numbers were cyber Monday. So cyber Monday set a new record as the biggest shopping day of the year at 13. 3 billion spent online. this actually exceeds Adobe's predictions and really everyone's predictions. and one thing I noticed, and this is, very anecdotal, but I noticed that the discounts were much better on Cyber Monday than Black Friday.

[00:03:55] Joshua Warren: and this is something that if you go back to that episode 97, [00:04:00] I had recommended that you look at your Black Friday data, and if you didn't quite hit your numbers, maybe you tweak your discounts over the weekend and tweak your Cyber Monday plan. Seems like a lot of retailers did that. there is, one retailer that I follow quite a bit that, They have always just done a 30 percent discount and they did a 30 percent discount on Black Friday.

[00:04:20] Joshua Warren: And I'm guessing they didn't quite hit their numbers because then on Cyber Monday, they came out with their first ever 50 percent discount, which was. big, obviously, also mobile shopping accounted for 53 percent of sales. and again, my, viewers and my friends in Europe and really the rest of the world, I was like, well, yeah, I mean, everyone shops on mobile.

[00:04:41] Joshua Warren: This was a slower shift in the U S it took longer for mobile specifically to take over a majority of holiday sales. last year was the first year that it was over that 50 percent mark. And now it is. Up to 53%. so that's the good news, the exciting news. However, for my multi store retailers, especially those in the [00:05:00] Midwest, there's some not so nice news in all of the data from the Cyber 5 weekend.

[00:05:05] Joshua Warren: nationwide traffic was down, traffic to stores was down 3. 2%. Much sharper declines in the Midwest and the Midwest, traffic to physical stores. So people go in and shopping in person was down 7%. really people are shifting to digital. I had predicted back in episode 97 that we were going to see a bigger shift in consumer behavior than we had seen since the start of the pandemic.

[00:05:27] Joshua Warren: And that's exactly what's happened. And I think a big driver in that is the fact that it's such a short holiday sale selling season this year. so there's fewer days, the fewest possible days. Between Thanksgiving and Christmas because Thanksgiving was so late in the year. But I also just think that this is, as we used to always say, the new normal.

[00:05:45] Joshua Warren: This is how people shop now. People want to find, especially their discounts and their deals for the holidays online. as kind of expected toys, appliances, and electronics were the big sellers over the Cyber 5 weekend. And then, [00:06:00] As I always mentioned, this always makes me nervous, but, buy now pay later.

[00:06:04] Joshua Warren: So consumer debt broke records during cyber five, 9. 4 billion of that 41 billion, so almost a quarter of the amount spent over the cyber five shopping period, was all spent with buy now pay later. So if you're not, Offering buy now pay later, you probably just missed out on up to 25 percent of your sales.

[00:06:26] Joshua Warren: So that's a lot of numbers. Where's the opportunities? Where's the risks? What is happening with all of this data? What does this mean for you omni channel retailers? So some big opportunities, obviously to leverage mobile shopping. I still think the in store hybrid in store mobile experience, there's still so much work that can be done there.

[00:06:46] Joshua Warren: And there's so many opportunities there. You think about that customer that is standing in your store, lots of times standing in your competitor's store. And looking at their mobile device and really meeting them where they are and encouraging them, whether it's a, an online [00:07:00] order that shipped to their home and online order for in store pickup, or even just, pulling up a store map and saying, Oh yes, that product is available in the store.

[00:07:08] Joshua Warren: Here's where it is. I can run in and get it. and go on my, the rest of my holiday shopping. There's some huge opportunities there for, your multi store retailers that other brands really can't compete with. Also, you gotta be offering buy now pay later, especially if you have, you know, more than two or three stores, you need to be offering a branded store credit card.

[00:07:31] Joshua Warren: and then you can also look at either through that financing partner offering buy now pay later or through a dedicated buy now pay later provider offering that. And again, those. Store credit cards especially are something that is so much easier for you as a multi store retailer to leverage versus a DTC brand.

[00:07:49] Joshua Warren: Definitely have that on your list to look into for 2025. also there's some opportunities here to, realign and redistribute your inventory and the next week or [00:08:00] so you don't have a lot of time, but seeing what is selling and seeing kind of that demand, I think there's a lot of people that are nervous about potential tariffs.

[00:08:08] Joshua Warren: and I don't know, this is another case of, does the economy make the news or does the news make the economy? But there's so much fear mongering out there in the press, but Oh, tariffs, everything's going to get more expensive. So items that consumers perceive may get more expensive. If there are new tariffs in January, seeming to be selling really well.

[00:08:27] Joshua Warren: So something to consider, even if you can't ship the physical inventory to make it available online, shifting your marketing to feature those items can really help. definitely saw a lot of pain points around supply chain bottlenecks. I know there's been some really harsh weather in the Northeast that has definitely caused some challenges and just overall Seeing kind of some of the crunches with the shorter holiday period Keep a close eye on your supply chain and your fulfillment Also in store traffic is dropping.

[00:08:57] Joshua Warren: that's something that is, I think, going to [00:09:00] continue to happen every year at the holidays. There's going to be fewer and fewer people going into the stores. more and more, sales are going to happen online. But again, this is where you can have a unique opportunity if you capture it, to offer a unique experience that blends your mobile web experience with your in store experience.

[00:09:18] Joshua Warren: Between that And just other unique in store experiences you can offer. you can at least capture more of the in person traffic that is out there. and again, that's an advantage you can have over D to C brands that don't have a store presence if you really capitalize on it. but there are a lot of challenges in that omni channel experience and trying to provide that seamless experience between the web and the store experience.

[00:09:45] Joshua Warren: That's where you really need to partner with someone that has done this before that has helped a store improve their omnichannel experience So we got a few weeks left in the holiday shopping season. What do we do now? Well, first [00:10:00] of all Keep up your promotions. Keep up your discounts. Consumers are expecting discounts.

[00:10:06] Joshua Warren: the numbers seem to be trending right along with what we shared before. consumers are expecting about a 30 percent discount. Less than 30 percent doesn't seem to really get them excited. and I think there's even a risk of going too high. You know, you start going to that 50 percent or higher and people started thinking, is this a real sale or did you mark it up to mark it down?

[00:10:25] Joshua Warren: also look at your fulfillment and delivery operations. Make sure that you are getting those orders fulfilled. It's a short holiday season this year. So every day counts. The good news is with Christmas falling in the middle of the week, it's a lot, easier, I feel like, than when Christmas is on a Saturday or Sunday in that you've got Monday, you've got Tuesday to get those gifts in their hands before Christmas, so.

[00:10:49] Joshua Warren: Make sure you're looking at your on time delivery performance. And if needed, you're shifting, what carriers or what shipping methods you're using to get those items [00:11:00] into the consumer's hands on time. the good news is I did see, and it's, interesting where this job takes you, but, I saw that the nationwide forecast for the weather for the next few weeks is actually for above average temperatures, which means we shouldn't hopefully in these critical couple of weeks leading up to Christmas.

[00:11:20] Joshua Warren: See major weather disruptions that cause, supply chain and delivery problems. So hopefully UPS, USPS, FedEx is able to take advantage of this good warmer weather and get those packages delivered in time. make sure your customer service, your customer support team can handle the amount of inquiries you're getting, just like making sure you're delivering things on time.

[00:11:42] Joshua Warren: This is one of the two key factors that's going to determine if this kind of surge of customers here in December becomes long term fans of your brand, or if they get ticked off because they have a bad experience, they never buy from you again. If your customer service team is falling behind on your tickets.

[00:11:59] Joshua Warren: It's not too [00:12:00] late to consider some AI solutions to help boost their efficiency. definitely some quick wins that I could suggest in those areas. So if you're struggling with that, you're falling behind in that reach out to me on LinkedIn. You can find me as Joshua Warren. There's a lot of Joshua Warren's in the world, but I'm the one with a creativity gold background behind my photo.

[00:12:19] Joshua Warren: Drop me a message there. I would love to help you figure out how to quickly and easily leverage AI to help your customer service team catch up on your tickets. so yeah, and most of you or a lot of you are in a code freeze. We actually had an issue or a episode earlier this year and a discussion about if code freezes are even still relevant, but many of you are already in a code freeze.

[00:12:39] Joshua Warren: So You're probably not going to be adding new features to your site. We definitely be tracking the performance of the site and make sure there's not any last minute or mid season adjustments you need to make to keep your site running fast. also again, I already mentioned the weather. Hopefully the weather holds and there are not any major issues, but especially if you're a multi store [00:13:00] retailer, that's geographically concentrated.

[00:13:02] Joshua Warren: especially if you're in a, blizzard prone area and that's where you ship everything from start really making your plans and making sure that you are ready in case there is a little surprise before Christmas from the weather. Now, a lot of you, you know, for instance, if you're not offering buy now, pay later.

[00:13:20] Joshua Warren: You probably lost 20 to competitors that are, there's not really anything you can do in the next week to solve that for the rest of the holiday season. Good news is you can take that lesson and apply it to next year and you can make sure you're ready for next year. So looking at the data from this year, what we're already seeing, knowing that many of you are in budget and planning season and sessions, Really for next year, look at upgrading your mobile experience and your e commerce platform.

[00:13:50] Joshua Warren: Make sure that it's performing, it's offering that seamless omni channel experience. Again, I expect store traffic to continue to [00:14:00] decline year over year in the holiday season. The only way to fight against that is to blend your online experience with your store experience. Use that online experience to drive people to the stores.

[00:14:10] Joshua Warren: Definitely, I know many of you have invested heavily in your supply chain in the last year or two, but really look at your supply chain resilience, your ability to handle bursts of traffic, bursts of orders. I think we have another kind of shorter holiday season next year, not as short as this year, but shorter.

[00:14:29] Joshua Warren: So being able to handle kind of that compressed holiday season is going to be important. And then just really make sure that your omni channel integrations are really set up well and strong that you don't have data siloed off that when an item is purchased in store, that inventory is immediately taken away from potential buy online, pick up in store inventory from your website, different things like that.

[00:14:55] Joshua Warren: Consumers are just, their expectations ramp up every year. And again, You [00:15:00] provide a bad experience during this critical holiday season. They're not going to come back. I don't think it is too early to start thinking about your Valentine's day and other early 2025 holiday promotions. So marketing teams definitely look at the data that you're getting from cyber five and start thinking about your promotions for next year.

[00:15:21] Joshua Warren: I think that while consumer spending is increasing, people are feeling a little bit better about the economy. There's still a lot of fear around tariffs, there's still a lot of uncertainty, there's a lot of buy now, pay later usage. So being able to run campaigns that either leverage buy now, pay later, or store credit card, or that just show how you're making a purchase for value and to save money, is gonna be really important for your campaigns into next year.

[00:15:46] Joshua Warren: long term I have been talking about mobile and the mobile conversion gap and the importance of being ready for mobile traffic for, I believe, about 10 years now. so I don't want to call it the [00:16:00] rise of mobile first strategies, but the continuation of mobile first strategies is going to be big in 2025.

[00:16:07] Joshua Warren: we also have been talking for a while about sustainability. Even with kind of the political climate shifting, I still see a lot of, demand, especially from the younger generations for just understanding the impact of their purchases and how sustainable the products are, the fulfillment is, things like that.

[00:16:26] Joshua Warren: And so definitely. Have that on your radar. I know that just recently Netflix dropped a documentary about just how unsustainable shopping is and really kind of challenged and called out some specific retailers. So I think we're going to continue to see things like that. So make sure you are aligning your branding and your messaging and your, really your mission and vision around sustainability with whatever resonates with your particular customers.

[00:16:54] Joshua Warren: That was a lot. but we did just recap five days of online sales and overall it [00:17:00] has been a great five days. E commerce is definitely up, Total sales are up. Store traffic, sadly, is down. this is definitely a, wake up call, I feel like, for all you multi store retailers. you have to be focusing on and investing in.

[00:17:16] Joshua Warren: Omni channel and online solutions. definitely look forward to hearing from you and hearing, what you think, how your holiday season has been so far. I do offer free 30 minute e commerce problem solving and brains, brainstorming sessions on my LinkedIn profile. I'll have a link to that in the show notes as well.

[00:17:34] Joshua Warren: And I would love to meet with any of you, whether it's right now in the holiday season for a very immediate need or in the Q1, as you're looking at your plans for 2025, got some exciting, things that I'm working on around composable commerce and AI for omni channel retailers, but always just interested in talking with you about what your challenges are and what you need help with.

[00:17:57] Joshua Warren: So thanks for listening and I'll be back next [00:18:00] week. 

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