Matt Kimball 0:00 People weren't may not actually know my great grandfather had the first news my great grandfather had the first car dealership in Boston. How do you like that one? Steve McDowell 0:11 My grandfather was going through the backwoods of East Texas and Louisiana, building ice houses and boxing for money. Unknown Speaker 0:19 Boxing to therapist box, what happened to you? Hello Steve McDowell 0:30 Welcome to 2022 Shut up, Matt. Welcome to 2020 Do you know that this according to Canon, and we're talking about literature, according to Canon, this is the year that George Jetson was born. Matt Kimball 0:43 Oh, wow. Really? Yes. Wow. Steve McDowell 0:47 So I'm looking forward to the next 30 years because we Matt Kimball 0:53 your progress, baby? So, you know, that's Steve McDowell 0:57 interesting. How Matt Kimball 0:58 old was he when we would watch him as kids because he seems really old. Steve McDowell 1:02 We had a teenage daughter, maybe he's 40. So you'd rather not, sir, about the time that we're dropping dead of old age. Wow. We're gonna be we're gonna get Rosie to me. Matt Kimball 1:15 So what were their names there his hand? Elroy was the son. Steve McDowell 1:20 Theme song right. Meet George Jetson Jain, his wife feudi As a boy El Rey. Daughter, Judy. And then Rosie the indentured servitude Matt Kimball 1:32 robot. No, Rosie, I said that thing for Rosie. Steve McDowell 1:39 Let's talk about 2022. I don't want to wrap up 2021. Because honestly, that's too much work for me. So let's talk about what we think might be interesting rolling over. Alright. But the one top of mind for me is AMD server market share. This was maybe my favorite story, after arm. And we'll talk about armament. But this is one of my favorite stories come out of 2021, which I think is going to continue into 2022, which is the last so there's a so there's there's a company called omdia, who tracks data center server market share. And these are pretty much the only guys who count server processors. And their last report, they said that AMD captured a historic best, this is coming out of third quarter 16% of the server CPU market. We were at AMD in 2006. When they hit their second best maybe right, and those were big bonuses. So the guys at AMD have to be happy right now. But here's my question. Right? So they're taking they're taking share from Intel. But at the same time, we're hearing that AMD and Intel are both supply constrained, right? Is there headroom with all the supply chain issues for AMD to ship more processors and take more share? And maybe it's a little bit self balancing of Intel? can't ship the processors? Matt Kimball 3:00 Anything? Yeah, I think there's a there could certainly be a you know, I guess you could say a headwind for, for AMD, as far as furthering their expansion because of supply chain. As you said, Intel is facing the same issues because it's not just that TSMC can't produce it's that they can't get the materials that you know, are enabling them to produce. So it's bigger than it's bigger than fab capacity. Steve McDowell 3:30 I guess, I guess. Here's kind of a corollary question, is our supply chain issues artificially constraining the server market growth as a whole? Matt Kimball 3:41 Sure, they are right. Without a doubt there, I think you're still seeing you're still seeing Okay, growth considering but going back to AMD, I think you and I were talking about this the other day, I actually think AMD has an opportunity to, to, to pick out really big in 2022 and into 2023. And you know, I don't want to get into percentage numbers, as far as market share goes but you know, I think 15% 16% can be not even close to where they could be at the end of year. And that's partly because you know, when you look at I don't look at I don't look at spec in numbers. I don't look at benchmark numbers. I don't look at technical announcements that AMD or Intel make. When I think about you know where each company is going I look at conversations I have with folks that are in industry that are it practitioners or channel folks or solutions folks. And Intel is you know, it was last year year before it was Intel needs to catch up and tell needs to catch up toward the end of 2021. Intel wasn't even part of the conversation anymore. It's an AMD market. Steve McDowell 4:57 And it's something of the market because of Better to product not just price, but they are. But they are more valued price than AMD or than until the same time, Matt Kimball 5:06 they're more value priced. And it is day that you're right. It's a it's a, it's an actual competitive product discussion. It reminds me of clearly not trying to make any kind of inference with this or suggest anything, but it feels like you know, when I was at AMD, and we were trying to sell whatever we could with up to run against Xeon, because we're so poorly matched competitively. We went through the whole, you know, price, price, performance per dollar, and kind of getting into all of these different ways of trying to trying to define value to the customer. And we're just losing left and right, right. And that's how Andy went from decent market share to less than 1% in just a few short years in it. And it feels like you know, with Zeon, it's not so dissimilar from that situation, and that they're so far behind competitively. It's going to be a long road before they play catch up. But I think Gelsinger has hinted at some of that, with his discussions around, you know, you talked about before mud hitting pause and kind of, you know, getting competitive product of the door. Right, Steve McDowell 6:20 right. And, you know, cycle times on a semiconductor very long, so anything that Gilson is doing in 2020, we're not going to see until 2023. That's right back into this year. But you know, I think my takeaways I look at this market is AMD is repairing credibility, where maybe didn't have it eight or nine years ago, right. And I think at this point, it's just going to be a horse race, a flat out sprint, and, you know, they're gonna they're gonna be neck and neck. And that just opens opportunity for AMD, because the inhibitors to AMD gaining share have gone away. Yeah, and at this point is just going to be, you know, typical product cycle between two companies, and Intel has the most to lose, right. And we've seen this in market after market. Matt Kimball 7:03 Yeah, and if you look at if you look at AMD, since you know, since epic launched in 2017, right, so with the first few generations Naples and Rome, and even the early part of Milan, the first three generations of their epic part. It was cloud, cloud, cloud and HPC. And to what you're saying that the reason why it was like that was, and they were quite successful, was that they had not regained a level of credibility within the enterprise, which is always a very, they're the laggards when it comes to adoption. And in the latter half of 2021, that started to go away. And you starting to see the OEMs, the Dell, the HPE. The Lenovo is positioning and these platforms, at those traditional enterprise workloads, which they weren't doing before. So they're talking database, they're talking, you know, they're talking, you know, analytics, they're talking about those those workloads that enterprise buyers buy and in measure the rest of their implement the rest of their deployments on. So there, they've certainly made Steve McDowell 8:09 a lot of headway. Yeah, in gaining credibility, not just in server, which is kind of your yours and my focus. But across across it, right. I mean, AMD is doing tremendous things in the client space, and beginning to penetrate commercial client like they never have before. And we'll talk in a minute about some of the stuff they talked about at CES. And at the same time, Intel is distracted by losses and gaming and trying to enter the discrete GPU market. So there's a lot on Intel shoulders is keeping them distracted, Matt Kimball 8:41 I think. I'll be curious to see how Intel respond and 2022. You know, they, they, as they're kind of talking through their future roadmap, they talked about a what is it a really high end high core count server part in the latter half of 2022. And then I heard, you know, just before Christmas breaks that that was going to be delayed. It's like you just, you know, it's a, if you remember all the execution issues at AMD had for about four or five years there, it feels like some of that's going on with with Intel and Dell singer is trying his best to try and kind of Steve McDowell 9:21 in that seems to be what he's trying to fix first, right? I think he's putting band aids on the architecture, and building out building out his manufacturing capacity. Matt Kimball 9:31 With all that said, Intel is four times five times maybe 10 times the size of AMD. And their engineering resources are far greater than AMD. Steve McDowell 9:40 So Intel is going nowhere, right. But it's becoming much more competitive in the server market. And you know, it should be noted, the server market is where the profit lives, right. Those are high margin parts, compared to the more cutthroat certainly the consumer business right. Matt Kimball 9:56 Well, you know, Steve, it's funny because I was I was looking through some old slides. And I can't say what the year was or what the quarter was. But I remember it was in the latter part of operon, when we're just trying to keep kind of keep the lights on. We had a good we had a good year, one year, I won't say what it was, but it was toward the end, where and there was a slide that show where we were 4% of the revenue. Yet we're 50% of the profit. Sure, yeah. So Steve McDowell 10:35 let's shift gears. And one of the things that sets the tone for a new year is CES. I have not been to CES Matt since 2011. I was figuring that up today. But consumers the first word there, and I'm an enterprise guy, but there is interest in enterprise news there. So CES was all client, but I think there was some some interesting client stuff, righ t. And then I have some question for you about how much of this bleeds over into the server space on the client. And you and our client, guys, I really don't know a lot about this stuff. So one of the things that AMD announced at CES as part of the new client parts was and I guess the new client parts are based on Zen three core is Lisa Sue stood up and said, You're going to get 24 hour battery life. Out of these processors, what does that say about power efficiency for servers, it's going to translate? Or is it? Is it a No relation? Matt Kimball 11:32 Oh, it'll definitely translate. I think they're I don't know about this announcement in particular, but you know, they they go from one they designed from one core for both server and client and they make modifications. And you know, the thing server is, not every server is about power efficiency. Some servers, design stuff care about power efficiency whatsoever. It's about raw performance. And so I think, you know, they will continue to leverage whatever, whatever the gains they can find whether it's, you know, shrinking the die size or their manufacturing node to two other design considerations. But, you know, those are things they try and apply across both client and server. Steve McDowell 12:19 Yeah, it will, it says N three plus, I'm going to ask you a three pluses in a second as a new power management features, and new power management firmware. Now, you know, power management laptops, three different power management server, but Matt Kimball 12:35 yeah, yes. Steve McDowell 12:36 What is what is Zen three plus, Unknown Speaker 12:38 then three plus was? It was a bunch of there was announcement and the made back in November, which really is about a lot of, there are some new, some new capabilities, but it's really largely some new instructions that tailor the CPU for it depends. I don't pay attention to client, but on the server side, made up more HPC and AI friendly. Steve McDowell 13:10 Does this bring us PCIe? Five are no, no, no. When does that show up? an AMD is roadmap. And Intel Matt Kimball 13:19 should be done for that's PCIe? Five, that's a that's a that's bigger than something given CPU. You have to have systems that support as well. Steve McDowell 13:28 Sure, sure. But your memory controller, not your memory controller, but you're more used to call the northbridge. Right? Your processor needs to support it. Yes, yeah. Yeah. And I and I asked that question again. I started getting briefed on PCIe. five parts mid last year. Yeah, as you said, it's a system thing. And some of the first briefings we had were from storage controllers, which is kind of my focus and things like that, right. Like we have to be there the day this is this is available. In one of the things that we showed off in CES yesterday, Intel and Samsung demo demo, a PCIe, five SSD running on an Intel clearly an Intel based system. And they were streaming almost 14 gigabytes a second from this SSD. The best PCI four can do is seven, which is up from the the three and a half that most of us are running with our PCIe Gen three systems today. You know, we saw some some dramatic improvements in storage arrays as they started rolling out the PCIe four icelake stuff last year. Here's my question to you right, apart from you know, laptops, desktops, and and storage arrays. Is this gonna is this going to impact the performance of general purpose servers in DC? This is a big, big deal. Matt Kimball 14:58 Yeah, it certainly could If you take, and I'm going to include kind of take a less traditional workload, but take VDI where you're streaming beyond knowledge workers, and you're virtualizing that GPU as well, right? That's going to have a huge impact on performance. Any HPC related workload should, that uses acceleration to benefit from PCIe, five without I guess, Steve McDowell 15:28 I guess. And actually looking at what the storage guys have done with PCIe. Four, what it allows me also to do, it's not to saturate a card, but I can put more cards, more connectivity in a box, right and service them all equally. Whereas before, I might have been bus constrained. So you know, a bunch of 10 Gig NICs out of the back end, I can keep them full. Matt Kimball 15:48 And so so take that, and I'm going to draw a line back to you talk about power efficiency, right? I think that desktop and laptop you know, the greater battery power, the more battery power you get, the better off you are. When it comes to data center and servers, I think the discussion around power efficiency is gone. Because when you look at the workloads that are running in the data center today, and you look at the infrastructure required to power those workloads, power efficiency is, is an afterthought, right in a CPU being able to save, you know, a few milliamps here and there, over the course have over the course of time or kilowatts over the course of months has gone away because the CPU is not even the main power draw anymore. Right? You are the accelerator that's sitting inside of that. So now you're talking about the time but really small efficiency gains on one side, while you were talking about huge consumers of power on the other side, right. So I don't I don't put as much into the whole power efficiency discussion, as maybe some do. And I don't think it measures by that. And I don't think they ever really did as much as Google thinks they did. You know, I can tell you I've had literally hundreds of conversations with it, folks. And never once have I had a discussion around Intel's tdb to their Xeon T TDP versus AMD or Opteron TP. It just was not it was not a discussion, right. Steve McDowell 17:29 I think you're right. So let's let's leave CES. The other big trend is the last on my list that started in 2021 that I have, it's gonna be interesting to watch play out in 2022 is arm in Server. So we saw we saw a lot of arm activity among the hyper scalars last year as ampere and other started shipping their parts and certainly AWS and graviton. And they talked recently about you know, they announced their latest generation. Looking forward, Matt, do you think that this is still the, you know, today to date, it's only been a cloud only play. It's only the hyper scalars? Do you see an OEM stepping in and saying I'm going to build an arm server? And when I when I say OEM, maybe a tier two OEM like Oracle or or maybe someone like a Huawei, or do you think this is just going to be a cloud only play in terms of arm as a primary processor in your server? Matt Kimball 18:31 So Huawei has ARM based servers? Yeah, did not realize okay, yeah. And Oracle stands up ARM based instances within a cloud. Steve McDowell 18:44 Yeah. Yeah, they're right. But they're not selling a server I can deploy on prem. So I guess, apart from Huawei, who I did not know, is just a cloud only thing. Is Dell motivated as HP motivated Lenovo to build an on x86? I don't Matt Kimball 18:59 think they are yet. I think they will be in time but I don't think 2023 is the year Steve McDowell 19:06 2022 Matt Kimball 19:08 Maybe 2020 Sorry, I'm a year ahead I don't think 2022 is the year that they're going to be motivated you know, I think arm is going to continue and by the way, I don't know that that matters to the success of arm Steve McDowell 19:24 I don't think it does any income My next point is with everything that we're seeing around intelligent accelerators, right i mean arm could have an almost as big or bigger footprint in the data centers the processors. Right, right. If I if I look at a you know, a for use or for P server with, you know, 60 GPUs or Intel IPs, whatever you want to call them. Yeah. Each with its own four arm parts. Right? arm is in our arm has a home right and enterprise it Matt Kimball 19:55 well, and you can buy up post instances today based on ARM yeah Here's here's, here's my bold prediction. That's not for 2022 though, and that is as consumption based computing and, and workload optimized solutions become the primary primary deployment within the data center, you will see arm starts to take hold, because then it becomes about, you know, the, the, the equation comes down to, because that's where compute becomes completely commoditized. And you become more price sensitive. And if I can give you good or better performance on ARM versus x86, at, you know, the 25% cost savings. Why wouldn't I do that? It's gonna be a race to the bottom, right? Yeah, we're, I Steve McDowell 20:47 think we're gonna see a lot of interesting arm stuff. And we saw Hansard this at CES this week is going to be in the, in the client space, right? Microsoft and Qualcomm are getting very cozy. There's a lot going on there. And Qualcomm I think has has brought interest in going deep in client. And it can make a difference to the OEMs from kind of a price performance capability perspective. And client, by Matt Kimball 21:10 the way, and by the way, where did it how did Intel achieve success? First, it was in the client. Right? Right. Right. Right. Well, so I got there, you can't just one thing I want to throw out there. Um, just because I think there's a lot of benefit to the arm to arm model and having an ecosystem and multiple players. I think it can, in some ways, you know, kind of owning the market that can work against them to some degree in that, you know, consumers want to buy from, you know, they want that they're not, they don't want to think enough to say, Do I need ampair? Or do I need, you know, option B, C, D, E, or F, they want to, you know, the buying Intel Xeon E buying Intel, or AMD is easy, right? When you give me too many options, it becomes too difficult, and it can push me away. I think, you know, there's, I know you're laughing at me, but Steve McDowell 22:09 know what I was gonna say my jump in here is apart from it, guys. And gamers. I think we're at the point where consumers don't care. I mean, when's the last time you saw Intel Inside stickers and they stopped running the app, but they don't care. Right, right. I'm gonna go, I'm gonna go to Best Buy, and I'm gonna buy, you know, I got $500 to spend what can you sell me? And, and, you know, and I laugh a little bit at all the, you know, comparisons on? Well, all of the rhetoric we heard when when Apple and you know, started pushing a 10, one Max chip, second half of last year. Because as a consumer, you know, I'm reading it is a technologist, I care about this, I'm interested. But as a consumer, all I can think is I want Macco s or I want windows. That's right. I don't care. I don't care. You know, it's nice to know that my Mac is competitive. But you're not going to get me back on a Windows Matt Kimball 23:10 desktop. Right? No, I You're absolutely right. And, and I think, you know, apples is an example of a company dinner, right? And right, they own they own the value chain. So they own the silicone all the way up. Makes it easy, right? It takes that it takes that trying to figure stuff out out of the equation for the consumer, I just go by the MacBook. So you're you're talking to exactly what I would be concerned with with Arne, which is kind of confusing in the consumer too much. They make it very easy to go to buy this product. And even Steve McDowell 23:47 on the Windows side, right? I help somebody recently buy one and it's you know, what's important to me is I want the touchscreen or I want the like the mouse on this or the keyboard on that one. It's almost like, you know, we've been talking about getting to this point for years, but I think we're very close to, you know, use the automobile analogy. Right. I don't know what transmission is in my truck. Yeah, right. And I largely don't care. I know what kind of torque I need to tow whatever it is, I'm towing. And I think you know, car guys care about that. And I think PC world is moving the same direction. You got PC guys, and you got guys who this is just a tool, and it's gonna work for me or not? Matt Kimball 24:26 Well, and you know, it's funny said because I agree, and I agree with you. 100% And I think the vast majority of consumers do care about that. It's like even like the going back to the 24 hour battery life, you know, that and DNS right. 99% 90% of the consumers aren't there like, who cares, right? They they unplugged their laptop for two hours while they're sitting in front of the TV and they plug it back in. They don't really care about 24 hour battery life it's a it's a it's it's a way to differentiate that is losing its luster with with the market. but as a whole, right? Let's say to what you said they don't they care about turning it on having a great experience, and making sure it turns on when they press the button. They don't care about what's inside. And they're not disconnected that much in life. Right when they are disconnected. They're on these things called phones right there. Steve McDowell 25:20 Yes, yes. So I laughed a little bit on the Twitter feeds about whose radio was in this and who's, it doesn't matter. It does not matter. Although it's interesting as a technologist, there was also a leak yesterday that Apple's next generation M ship, which is going to be in their desktop, called the Mac Pro, is going to have something like 64 cores. Matt Kimball 25:40 Oh, wow. That's crazy. But again, four cores. And that's not Steve McDowell 25:47 unless you're What's this? This is one is targeted for content creators. This is their $5,000 Mac Pro. So if you don't, Matt Kimball 25:57 impressive, I guess it is. Steve McDowell 26:01 It's amazing what runs on your on your PC today, because I just opened my task manager equivalent. And I have just under 3000 threads. Right and all I have opened as a browser and zoom. Matt Kimball 26:15 Now, I hate it. It's funny, because whenever I launch edge, it and I open Task Manager, it immediately shows that I have like 32 Edge windows open. It's like how it's you know, all of those individual. Yeah, drives me crazy. Steve McDowell 26:30 To do like, I don't know if this is true on Windows edge has its own task manager. So if your browser is not responsive, it can tell me what it's doing. And I don't know what any of this stuff is like subframe sub frame sub frame. Matt Kimball 26:43 I don't either the problem is I've tried going in and individually shutting down like one of those sub frames and then invariably shuts down edge entirely. So defeats the purpose. Right, right now like there's one here called spear render. Steve McDowell 27:01 The podcast wasn't so two more things on arm now before we leave this so Nvidia the it looks like the NVIDIA arm acquisition is struggling with some regulatory stuff. Doesn't matter. Really, if you look at the I know it matters to Nvidia and their designs on the future but the overall arm market doesn't matter whether videos arm. Now I think it matters to what you said it Matt Kimball 27:30 matters a lot more to Nvidia than it does to arm the arm ecosystem is doing just fine. And they were doing just fine before and video came in trying to acquire them. I think it would make an NVIDIA almost invincible if it went through but I think arm continues to chug along just fine without video buying them. Steve McDowell 27:49 And then I keep reading and I read more this morning about this risk is a risk five is that how you pronounce that? risk, the risk the risk is risk five. So it's getting some interesting momentum and things like embedded storage controllers. The reason it was in my Twitter feed this morning is Intel owns a company called Mobileye, which is kind of their automotive arm. Yeah, well, automotive division. That's a say, all their stuff is based on RISC five, not not arm or x86? Yeah. Is this? Is this just a niche? Kind of embedded processor that's going to have a life of its own? Or do you see it moving in and fall into kind of the kinds of things we're talking about with arm? Matt Kimball 28:36 Now? I don't I don't I don't see it, I don't see it expanding in a way that arm expanded and certainly not in the short term. You know, if you go around to if you if you buy into the fact that or the belief that 10 years from now, silicon is just kind of a an ingredient and all up solutions. You know, it could be any architecture under there, right? It could be you know, could be open power could be risk five, it could be arm, it could be some other myths derivative. But short term now, I think so. You know, you have to remember and these folks that are folks, these companies, whether it's, you know, Amazon or AWS or, or Google or Oracle or whoever, you know, deploying building and deploying these arm instances, you know, it's they are in the whole kind of architectural license manage simplified silicon development, but it's still a very heavy lift. And to say I'm going to go do yet another architecture. That's expensive, and it's time consuming and what's what do you get in return for agri with Steve McDowell 29:53 that I think RISC five if it impacts arm at all, it's going to be kind of the very low end embedded space. Yeah, yeah. Part of what Find the success of risk V. In even a bit of spaces, it's very well number one, it's free. And it's very easy to synthesize into an FPGA, right. So if I'm a start up and I'm building something with some specialized, I can stick in an FPGA and it's successful, then I can just send that over and make an a sec. It's a little more heavy lift, as you said, with arm, but this is not going to wind up in a DPU anytime soon. Now, what have I missed? Man? What's going to happen in 2022, that you care about? Matt Kimball 30:30 You tell me what's going to happen? Steve McDowell 30:32 I hate doing predictions, because they never true. Matt Kimball 30:37 Alright, let me ask you one quick question on the storage side. Okay. As we exit 2022, give me one or two storage companies, we're gonna go Wow, where did they come from? Steve McDowell 30:49 vast, vast storage has been stellar, Philly building a following right among high performance storage. And I think we're gonna see them in 2020 to be more enterprise mainstream focused. And they're interesting in that they have kind of a disaggregated approach. I mean, they sell you a box. But really what they're selling is the software that ties these boxes together. And they're doing some very interesting things with, you know, obtain and storage, class memory for caching. And they're taking advantage of PCI for in a way that other storage companies aren't. So they have a very fascinating architecture and some kick ass performance, and a lot of fans and places like, you know, finance and pharma, where performance matters. And we're gonna see that come down. That's really the only kind of outside nic in 2022. I think 2022 is going to be the year where all of the promise of PCI four start showing up in storage arrays, we really haven't seen that. I mean, these are slow upgrade cycles on the controller for storage. But the numbers we're seeing for the guys that are showing off PCI four for storage, you know, we're about to enter another strata performance. Matt Kimball 32:05 I think it's funny now with Thala, we're talking about PCIe. Five earlier, and as we're talking about, what I was thinking is kind of what you just hit on, and that is that PCIe, four really hasn't been realized yet the amount of value of it. Yeah. Steve McDowell 32:19 No, I mean, we well, you know, storage, if you look at it store does on about a three year cycle in terms of controller replacement. So I can't remember off the top of my head. So I can tell you shipping a new icelake one, but somebody is, and their numbers are really good. So to stay competitive, it's going to force upgrades, I think across the board. But you know, these should not be heavy lift upgrades. I think it's more, you know, the supply there. And can I build these boards because you know, everybody's buying them from Super micro and plugging them into their chassis. So yeah, we'll see that. So we're gonna see PCI four explode this year. My big wildcard for the year is what is Intel going to do with octane? So they spun out all of their storage business last year except for Optane. And in fact, SK Hynix. When was this about a week ago, so SK, SK bought Intel storage, SSD business. So they've turned that into a new company. It's a subsidiary. And I had a hard time pronouncing this until I read the press Return to read some of the coverage. Solid I'm as what they're calling it. Sol ID IgM. So I kept calling that solidity, so lignum like the spelling. But, you know, I look at vast data and some of these other storage companies and they rely very heavily on the properties of Optane to deliver some of the performance that they're seeing, you know, but micron sold the world's only production, 3d NAND fab to Texas Instruments, who is not going to fabricate. Not going to fab not going to fab Optane are not going to fab 3d. 3d NAND 3d Crosspoint. Tech Center is not going to fab 3d Crosspoint and Intel's fab plans last year did not talk at all about Fabien 3d Crosspoint. And every financial industry talking about the space as Intel's losing money on the parts, right. I mean, it provides differentiation in some areas for them. But, you know, the question is 3d Crosspoint going to survive the year and I'm not laying down bets, but it doesn't look good. So, I mean, said Hang on that said, you know, the alternative technologies, you know, micron said 3d Crosspoint. It's not the future but a similar technology that's based on CX l might be right so there may be replacement in the works. Maybe Octane is a bridge. Matt Kimball 35:03 So you don't you don't believe that even though Intel is losing money today, there's a long term bet that they're, you know, Steve McDowell 35:13 I don't know who's I don't know who's building this. And if the world coalesces on, you know, CSL attached memory. Yeah. Is that a better play than then Optane, which requires a, you know, proprietary memory bus I can't put up well, that's an AMD. Matt Kimball 35:29 That's the thing that that's the thing that I didn't understand why Intel was so. So proprietary in our approach, especially wherever it is open, and especially see Excel has had a lot of momentum behind it. Steve McDowell 35:45 Yeah, so I don't know. But it's good. To me. Storage tends to track on its own, we've seen a lot of disruption storage over the past three years, as NVMe came in, and, and some of the software defined architectures. You know, I think this year, it's, we're gonna see a lot of, you know, cloud integration features, a lot of data protection integration features, we're already seeing the ball rolling in that direction. I don't know that we're going to be disrupted this year by anybody or any technology, but that's why they call it disruptions. We'll be surprised. Right? That's right. What else you got? Man? Anything big happen in the server front? Matt Kimball 36:23 No, no. And I really good. Sorry. No, I just echoing him. No, no, I was just gonna say I think I'll and I know we're going along for closer with this. I just think that, you know, we talked about consumption based. A few times I'm going to be I'm going to be tracking each of the major OEMs and how their consumption based offerings are trending over the course of 2022. I think, you know, this is it's, it's kind of go from a trend to a movement to mainstream, in very short order. I don't think 2022 is a year where it crosses that point. But it's going to make a lot of Steve McDowell 37:05 it certainly top of mind, I think for every OEM, the frustrating part of watching this market is nobody's giving numbers. They will all say that, you know, it's the fastest growing segment of our business. But as you and I say, over and over, right, when you launch something, it better be the fastest growing segment of your business. Going forward, going from two to four customers is 100% increase. So I'm hopeful that we'll start seeing some breakouts. In terms of, you know, they're training us to think about this differently. Right. So hopefully, I start talking about annual run rates and things like that for their, you know, for HPE for Dell, I'm really anxious to see because Dells got a little bit different model than the rest of the industry. You know, I'm anxious to see how this impacts. So I'm hopeful because I think it's a great model and I know it loves it. But yeah, we can't quantify it. That's the frustrating part. Matt Kimball 37:59 The frustrating for us, yes. Yeah. Anyway, Steve McDowell 38:04 that's all I got brother. Matt Kimball 38:07 So that's it. Steve McDowell 38:11 Thank you for tuning into another data centric podcast. Transcribed by https://otter.ai