Hello and welcome to the inaugural episode of Elegant Ramblings! In this first episode, I’ll give you four possible outcomes for the 2024 US Presidential Election. Before we begin, I wanted to address the question you’re probably asking yourself, who are you and how did your voice get in my speaker? 
So a quick introduction – I turn 40 this year. Maybe it’s the need for a cheaper mid-life crisis than a red convertible or maybe it’s a need to memorialize my feelings in a way I’ve never done before but, either way, I think it’s going to be a big year and I wanted a way to share some of my thoughts with the world, even if that world is a big, loud, noisy one with a million and one other uninformed opinions. Hopefully, you’ll find mine at least mildly engaging and entertaining. The show is straightforward – no guests, just me reading my essays, some background music, and you, the listener. The episodes will be around 20 to 30 minutes each. What will the essays be about? Anything I find interesting. The next few episodes will cover a pretty wide range of topics – everything from why Artificial Intelligence will change everything (and still probably be less important than you think) to the dangers of nostalgia to why tolerance is underrated. I tend towards topics that have an evergreen nature but will not shy away from touching on topics from the headlines when necessary. 
If any of that sounds interesting to you, I invite you along for the ride. Hell, if you made it this far, I thank you. I know you have an endless sea of podcasts to swim in. Thank you for spending some time dipping in mine. 
Now, back to the show. I’ll put my cards on the table – I’m writing this in December of 2023. We don’t know yet, officially, who the nominees for the Democratic or Republican party will be. Officially. 
We’ll start with the least results and ending with what I believe is the most likely outcome. In the show notes, I’ll link to articles referenced in the show.
I’m speculating here but I feel comfortable making my predictions based on Joe Biden and Donald Trump winning their party nominations, respectively. While there is a Republican primary, Trump is head and shoulders above anyone else and, save for an unforeseen health episode, I believe he will be the nominee of his party. Ditto Joe Biden.
With that being said, we’ll move on to the main topic – 4 possible scenarios for the results of the 2024 presidential election.
Scenario # 1: A third party candidate shocks the world. 
Are you sitting down? Take a deep breath. Take another one. I didn’t mean to shock you. It’s okay. A third-party candidate is not going to win the presidency in 2024. If you think a two-party system stifles democracy by forcing everyone into one of two tribes, that fit the majority of us like a rented groomsmen suit, you probably see a multi-party system ala Germany or the UK as a saner way to run the federal government. I’m sorry but you’ll have to wait a little longer (or a lot longer) to see that happening in the US. 
That being said, there may be a silver lining; if ever there was a time for a fresh voice outside the Republican and Democrat establishments, it would seem to be now. Both Trump and Biden are historically unpopular, with Biden at a favorability rating around 40%. This is where he’s been for roughly 2.5 years.  
if an independent, most likely RFK Jr or Joe Manchin, wins any electorial votes, it will likely have the biggest impact since Teddy Roosevelt won 88 as the Bull Moose Party (best political party name ever) candidate in 1912. Why? Two reasons: 1. It could, depending on the states carried, cause neither main party candidate to reach the necessary 270 votes needed to win the presidency. In other words, a tie. This would require the House of Representatives to pick the president. This hasn’t happened since 1824. In a bitterly divided country, this would be, to put it mildly, bonkers and cause unseen consequences, likely for years. 2. Where there is chaos, there is opportunity. Both candidates are historically unpopular. Both political parties, albeit it to different levels of degree, have become less moderate in the past 20 years. A shot across the bow from an independent or third-party candidate could cause long lasting ramifications to the US political system that we will be feeling for years.
Those who have felt ostracized from the two-party system, with a strong showing by an independent, could find the resolve to take on the two-headed monster into the future. 
Now, what is the likelihood that someone not named Trump or Biden wins a state? It’s low – maybe like 5%. In 1992, Ross Perot won 30% of the vote in Maine and 27% in Utah. He lost both states. The closest analogy to a Perot run is RFK Jr, who, per the NYT as of last month, is polling around 25% in a handful of states.  
However, it’s important to note that the Perot run happened at a time with a much more heterogenous news media, where local newspapers and radio stationed played a much larger role in informing citizens about issues important to them. The rise of national media (cable tv news, most prominently), the conglomeration of print and radio media, and, most of all, the internet becoming the de facto news source for hundreds of millions of Americans has made all local politics national. While a candidate on the fringes may have a strong showing by the normally anemic standards for 3rd parties, it’s unlikely that anyone will make a real dent in the electoral college. The one caveat here is if both Biden and Trump see the benefit of a multi-candidate debate – if this happens and a bombshell happens on live tv, then all bets are truly off.
Scenario #2 – One of the two candidates doesn’t make it to election day.  Both candidates are very old (Biden in his 80s, Trump in his late 70s). For candidates years younger, a national campaign for presidency is a grind. I can’t imagine it’s anything short of brutal for men as old as these two. If a serious health issue sidelined one of them (or worse), it would completely change the framework of this race.
Let’s split this scenario in half. Imagine the following: it’s May Day, 2024. Biden has a massive heart attack and dies. What happens to the Democratic party? Would they rally around Kamela Harris? Given how unpopular she is with non-Democrats, surely someone (Gavin Newsom? Amy Klobuchar? Julian Castro?) would consider jumping in as an alternative. With less than 6 months to go before election, it would be a crazy summer and, in my opinion, would result in a Democratic loss because it would fracture the party – either Harris would be the nominee, angering the moderate wing of her party or Harris would not be the nominee, angering Black and Female Democrats and suppressing their turnout. 
Now, let’s flip this around. Trump dies. Same day. He hasn’t announced his VP yet. Does the second-place finisher in the Republican primary become the de facto nominee? If this is Chris Christie or Nikki Haley, would the Trump wing accept this? It’s likely that a fractured Republican party simply wouldn’t have enough time to coalesce around a candidate and that Biden would win a narrow victory.
The likelihood of this happening is a bit higher than scenario 1 but not by much. Both these men, despite their age, are going to live longer than the average person due to the fact they have access to the best medical care in the world. I hate to tell people who are praying for either candidate to drop dead but it’s just not (statistically) likely to happen before November of 2024. 
Let’s now move to two scenarios that are much more likely to occur: either Biden or Trump are re-elected. Right now, I give both of these scenarios around a 50% chance of happening. 
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Scenario #3 –  Joe Biden, narrowly, wins re-election. What is the most likely scenario for this happening? Joe Biden retains the blue wall and is able to win his home state and Virginia. That’s all he needs to do to win re-election. That’s it. He doesn’t need to win Georgia. He doesn’t need to win Arizona. That’s it. Would this be a closer victory than in 2020? Yes, yes it would be. Is a win still a win? Yes it is. 
What is Biden’s biggest hurdle here? In one word, the economy. Despite record low unemployment numbers, about half the country thinks the economy is getting worse. This outlook is even dimmer for voters under 30, one of his key voting blocs. It’s possible, however, to see a silver lining here. The recession that has been predicted for over a year still has not materialized. Wage growth, while not anemic, hasn’t caught up to inflation for most Americans. It’s possible that with an improving supply chain and lower fuel prices, that inflation will finally start to stabilize and prices will, at the very least, stop rising faster than wages. If, given labor shortages, companies increase salaries for employees over the next 6-10 months, the economic burden felt by many may seem lighter, just in time for the election. We also have seen a series of high-profile union wins over the last year, from the auto workers to screen writers. It’s possible that Biden will use these wins as evidence of his economic policies helping low- and mid-income workers. This message is likely to resonate in certain key battle ground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. 
The other benefit that Joe Biden has is a unified party. Donald Trump scares Democrats like no other modern politician has and this fear of a second Trump term will cause the Democrats to pull out all the stops in order to persuade a relatively small group of undecided voters. While Trump has had to content (to some degree) with a primary challenge, without any real contenders, the Democratic war chest will be solely focused on the re-election of Joe Biden. He will also be helped by a liberal media that detests Donald Trump; we’ve already seen the Atlantic and other publications sound the alarm on the possibility of a second Trump administration and what they feel it would mean for democracy. 
It's true: The Democrats appear splintered - a large number of Muslim Americans feel betrayed by Joe Biden’s handling of the war in Israel. Young voters feel betrayed by Biden’s inability to cancel student loans and fight for abortion rights on the national level. Black voters feel that they have been taken advantage of and have not felt heard by this administration. 
Does this mean that any of these groups will vote for Trump come election day? Probably not. The election is still many months away and the memory of the American electorate is short. Given that the media barrage has yet to begin, it’s quite likely that these feelings of frustration will fade with time and that groups historically aligned with Democrats will come home to roost – unless they don’t, more on that later.
Biden has the advantage – those it’s a measured one – of being the incumbent. Since 1980, only George HW Bush and Donald Trump have been single term presidents. Most Americans are low information voters who don’t care deeply about politics – if you’re listening to this, you’re not one of these people – but there is a constituency that comes out and votes simply because it’s their democratic duty and, if their lives are okay, the incumbent president gets the nod. I think there is a significant number of elderly folks who fall under the category: They may be swayed by Biden’s fight to lower prescription drug prices, which is something that disproportionately affects the elderly. They are also likely to have benefited from a rising stock market and home prices, having bought their homes much earlier in their lives. Also, culturally, they may feel a kinship with Biden and react to what they see as ageism by circling the wagons to defend the oldest president we’ve ever had. 
If Biden is re-elected, I will be interested to see how this block of voters is covered in the election’s aftermath.
Scenario #4 – Donald Trump, narrowly, wins re-election. First, before we break down the clearest path for a Trump victory, a confession: I lied to you. Sitting here now, in December of 2023, before a single voter has cast a ballot in any primary, I think that the most likely scenario is the following: Trump is able to eke out an electoral college victory over Joe Biden and becomes the President, again. While I  do think the election is more or less a coin flip at this point, I think Trump has a slight edge, for reasons that I will go into in a bit – the coin is slightly weighed in his favor.
Alright. Let’s break down what Trump needs to do to win. He has to break the blue wall, again. In addition to Georgia and Arizona, he has to win Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin. 
He lost Georgia and Arizona and all 4 states in 2020. So why do I think it’ll be different this time?
Trump, unlike Biden, has the ability to change his fate: key decisions made over the next few months can help (or hurt) his bid for a second term. One of the biggest is who he selects for his VP. There is a choice here that is obvious – Donald Trump would be most helped if Nikki Haley accepts his offer to run as Trump’s Vice President.  
Since the supreme court overturned Roe vs. Wade, the Democrats have successfully made abortion a wedge issue and will continue to do so in 2024. There were certainly candidate issues in the midterms but I believe the Republicans would have won the Senate had it not been for abortion being on the ballot in many states. On this issue, Nikki Haley is the most moderate candidate of the current four candidates running in the Republican primary. Having a woman as his VP will help sway some moderate women who feel that, while not loving Joe Biden, they are alienated from the hard stances of the Evangelical right. Haley stance on abortion basically freezes where it is now (an issue to be decided by the states) and allays fears from this block that, given the chance, the Republicans would enact a nation-wide abortion ban, especially if she, after 4 years, becomes president herself.  
The other block Haley pulls into the tent are foreign policy hawks who may feel Trump wasn’t strong enough against Iran and China in his first term. While there are very few undecided voters left due to the high name recognition of both likely candidates, having Haley on the ticket does more than any other Republican to help Trump in this area, as she is the loudest voice for a strong (read: pro-military) foreign policy.
The other elephant (pardon the pun) in the room is Trump’s myriad of legal issues. Here Trump may have less agency but he has the benefit of being in his milieu: Trump has been involved in litigation, in one form or another, for years.
Even if he is convicted on any charges, there likely would be appeals that would keep him out of jail on election day. Given the inability for any previous charges to derail Trump’s popularity, at least with a plurality of Republican voters, it’s unlikely for any of these charges to significantly make a dent in his re-election chances.
In addition, Hunter Biden’s legal troubles will, without doubt, muddy the waters for many low information voters, allowing Trump to deflect criticism of his actions, especially if and when the two candidates debate.
Finally, Trump, running as the oppositional outsider, will be able to paint Joe Biden’s foreign policy decisions as disasters. The pullout from Afghanistan marked the beginning of the decline of Joe Biden’s popularity and has continued since, nearly unabated. The war in Ukraine, where Joe Biden has nearly single-handedly held the European powers in an alliance against Russia, seems to be turning south. It’s unlikely that, given we are entering an election year, Biden will be able to convince a divided Congress to pony up billions more in war funding – Americans love a war, when they’re winning it. When they’re not, they don’t. 
He'll be able to do the same on the economy. Credit card debt, early 401k withdrawals, and vehicle repossessions are all up. Inflation, while coming down, has not reversed prices – food and housing prices are still much higher now than when Biden took office. While fuel has come down slightly, the average price of a gallon of gasoline has risen roughly .75 per gallon since he took office. It’s also important to note that, aside from 401K withdrawals, these indicators point to hard times for low income, working poor Americans. 
While there have been some legislative wins for the administration (bi-partisan infrastructure bill, inflation reduction act), these are not likely to be felt by the average voter for years, if not ever. The Inflation Reduction Act’s budget of $370B is spread over 10 years and is likely to be utilized more by upper middle class Americans than those in lower economic demographics. 
If the economy gets worse (a substantial rise in unemployment coupled with lackluster wage growth), it will be very easy for Trump to paint Biden as out of touch, both domestically and in his foreign policy. The block that Biden was able to pull from Trump – working poor white voters – may overlook Trump’s issues if it means a return to a stronger economy. Ditto a group that Republicans have nearly no success in courting: Black voters, specifically Black men. If Trump is able to gain 20 or so percent of the Black vote, it would be seen, even if he ekes a victory, as a disaster to Joe Biden, as this has been a huge part of his constituency for years.
If the economy softens next year, always a key issue for voters, Biden will have an uphill battle. He will have to have a full blitz campaign, including in person events in as many swing states as he can muster. While his former boss, Barack Obama, is still very popular, Biden’s health and his VP’s relative unpopularity may actually work against the goal of making Biden appear hearty and competent. 
So that’s my analysis of the upcoming election. If all that sounds incredibly pessimistic, there may be some good news – no matter who you want to be the president, they’ll likely, whether it’s Biden or Trump, have a divided Congress, for at least the next two years. The Republicans are expected to re-gain the Senate and the House is a toss-up, with whichever party wins sure to have a razor thin majority. This will allow a few party dissidents, on either side, to have an enormous amount of power to gum up the works. It’s unlikely that the agenda of either party will be realized in full. 
Well, that’s the first episode of Elegant Ramblings. Thanks again for listening. Show notes are below. See you next time!