James Downes  0:08  
Hello and welcome everyone to the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right, The Right Rising Podcast. My name is James Downes and I am a Senior Fellow and Head of the Populism Research Unit at the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right. I am also a Lecturer (Assistant Professor) based in Hong Kong at The Chinese University of Hong Kong, where I research and teach on courses related to European politics and also comparative politics. Our populism Research Unit has a wide range of experts that focus on the populist radical right, ranging from Germany, Italy, France, Norway, and the United Kingdom through to Hungary, Poland, Georgia and the Ukraine, amongst many other countries. Our experts are international leading scholars and political commentators with a focus on a number of different Western European and Central Eastern European countries. In this episode, our first episode for the Podcast by the Populism Research Unit, we'll be hosting this episode and interviewing two of our experts from our Unit. Today, we'll be looking at the latest developments in Italian politics, alongside the different forms of populism in Italy, the political and economic impacts of COVID-19 and then examining the electoral volatility that has historically underpinned Italian politics. So it's a great privilege for me to introduce our two guests today. Firstly, we have Dr. Valerio Alfonso. Bruno. Valerio is a political analyst and Senior Fellow at our Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right based in Italy. Valerio also recently joined the Centre for the European Future, which is an Italian think tank that focuses on the possible futures of Europe and the European Union. Alessio Scopelliti  is a PhD candidate in Politics at the School of Sociology, Politics and International Studies at the University of Bristol. Alessio is also a Doctoral Fellow at the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right and is based currently in the United Kingdom. Welcome to the show Valerio and Alessio, it's great to have you both on. So our first question to start off with is a bit of a backdrop question about Italian politics. So Italian politics has often being characterised as having incredibly high levels of electoral volatility. Italy has had something like an astonishing 67 governments in the post World War Two period since 1945. Why didn't has Italian politics tended to be so volatile?

Valerio Alfonso Bruno  2:43  
First of all, thank you, James, for hosting us. Regarding question, I would say it is mainly related to the kind of electoral system or an electoral system that is mostly proportional. So for example, right now, in Italy, according to the latest polls, we have, for instance, small parties like Italia Viva, which was established few months ago by Matteo Renzi, the former leader and Prime Minister of the Democratic Party.  These kind of parties when they are into coalition, let's forecast for example, on the centre left coalition with the Democratic Party and the Five Star Movement. You can imagine the possible role of the party of rancher Kolenda within this coalition will make the overall stability you know very precarious, as you said a lot of volatility. And unfortunately, this has always been the case for Italy.

Alessio Scopelliti  4:16  
Right. So

First of all, thank you for having me here. I agree with Valerio here, of course, when you're talking about crisis of Governability, like when we see this astonishing high number of 67 governments since 1945. Of course, this is not always just one explanatory factor that determine this kind of phenomenon. We have to take into consideration several elements like as well, as you said the kind of electoral law, which I think historical reasons. Since the the Constituent Assembly they wanted to avoid that one party or one leader might become too powerful because of the previous issue. dictatorship experience. Also the type of constitution that we had a presidential Republic, of course, would be more stable than a parliamentary republic and the type, of course, party system, we have, there are many political parties representing many different ideologies. So we have a multi party system and not have to participate, and like those seen in UK and USA. Of course, these there are also social, economic and cultural factors that determine this kind of phenomenon. But if we just combined these kind of elements, of course, according to Italian Constitution, the Italian electorate does not elect the government, but the members of parliament. Eventually, by having a proportional or a mixed majoritarian electoral system, many parties win seats in Italian parliament, and unfortunately, are hopefully, according to the kind of perspective, no single party and not even a coalition usually managed to gain enough seats to go over onto the natural end of the Parliament. Instead, what usually happens is that Italy has been ruled by ground conditions. And these ground conditions are usually formed by parties belonging across all the political spectrum, from left to right, which after election day, they can decide to form a new government with the political forces that have just been elected. And since parties will typically hold very different views, is not hard to see why such coalitions often have many difficulties in agreeing on legislation or about the political agenda of the government. So eventually, these disagreements often end up in crisis. Thanks.

James Downes  6:35  
Just very briefly, I think it's really interesting. You mentioned both of you about the multi- party system, the grand coalition, this wider complexity, and it makes me think about other countries in Western Europe, such as the Netherlands or even Belgium, where there are these coalition governments comprised of, you know, many different types of political parties. And also, again, very widespread patterns of electoral volatility when we see the fragmentation and how many different parties there on the Netherlands. So for UK viewers listening to this episode, this is probably something that you might not be so used to use to kind of dealing with, in terms of the fact of tend to have a two party system where the conservatives or labour, particularly in the Westminster government, of course, devolution in Britain, particularly in Scotland, for example, has kind of changed some of these traditional patterns. But it's very, very interesting. Very interesting for UK viewers to hear a bit more about that. So moving on, then to kind of the main focus of our episode, when we're looking at populism, I think myself and also viewers who will be listening to this episode will have heard a lot about, you know, the rise of the five star movement, and also about the league. And what exactly are these different types of parties and also the other party pretending to Italia, led by Georgia Meloni more on the populist radical right. So what then is the meaning of populism in the Italian political context?

Alessio Scopelliti  8:04  
I think that Italian populism does reflect the well known definition made by Cas Mudde, which is a thin ideology by stating that society is divided into these two competing groups. On the one hand, the pure people against the corrupt elite. Indeed, when recent literature on populism seeks to create a common denominator in order to identify populist parties tend to label us properly. So those parties that usually position towards the poles of the left right political spectrum, hence we are going to talk about radical parties, which are usually identified as the mostly radical right wing parties. However, I know that you mentioned poster moments, the league and brothers of Italy as populist parties, but when we're addressing the talent, political context, I think it might not so easy to distinguish which part is populism, which part is not, because not only the radical parties, but also mainstream or established parties have experienced at least once in their political life, hopeless characteristics. And of course, I'm referring to senior Berlusconi era with force Italia since 1993, or even so from the right wing, and also from the mainstream left wing with my motto, ANC leadership, within particular democratical from 2010 to 2019. When he after he, since he founded until he founded Italia Viva. So I think that this true kind of examples can be defined as a sort of top down populism. I mean, I kind of pull up kind of populism, which is supported by people of course, and it claims to represent the people the will of the people, but originated over a top down mobilisation. On the other hand, when we explore the radical parties, we can definitely identify as popular as the five star movements and brothers of Italy in the league. And in all these parties, I think that the common denominator among them is the bottom up The process does this part is experienced. However, I think that this part is also show some differences, especially between the first moments and the other two radical right parties. On the one hand, I think that the first moment and brass probably is more like as an ideology. I mean, in a sense that there is a debt of this party is to fight any established institution, or more in general, the corrupted, corrupted political elite from the local national to the supranational level. On the other hand, brothers of Italy and League, I think that they embrace properties, more like a communicative style, rather than rather than as an ideology. Because I think that there the origin is already well defined around the concept of nativism.

Valerio Alfonso Bruno  10:46  
I agree with the points that have just been mentioned, it's not easy at all to to distinguish about the variety of populist populism in Italy, that are really different kinds of radical right populist parties as well as Lega and Fratelli d'Italia, which is completely the reverse, right now. Right now, the party of Meloni is polling at around 15-16%. Whilst Berlusconi's party is around 6%. And let me For example, let's take the the referendum that will be held in Italy on the 20th and 21st of September, which is about the possibility to cut almost one third of the members of the Italian parliament. And it's quite, you know, astonishing to me that, of course, there are parties like Five Star Movement, like the the Lega, which are in favour of cutting the members, a member of the Parliament, which what strikes me on the other end is other parties such as Partito Democratico (The Democratic Party), or former member of this party like in the vehicle, a former Italian president of the Council of the ministers there in February, as well have gotten, you know, the member of the parliament's so you may ask why. The Big D, which is not obviously not a Populist Party is in February, no, which are the reason behind it not in February on such a populist, because according to most of the analysts, it isn't just, you know, frustration towards the elites, towards the political elites, banish them to cut them over one third. Not according to me behind the move from the pastor democratical, for example, from an Recoleta. There are also other kinds of norm strategists I would say. And as Alissa was mentioning, I will do, I will say, a top down approach to politics. Recently, Eddie collector, he wrote a tweet where he said the the less Parliament's were probably the better the quality will be. Honestly, I don't see the logic behind this statement. Unless you you prefer to have an approach to politics, which is a top down approach. Let's call it based on expertise, let's call it even technocratic. So I would say it's possible to measure populist parties in Italy, but also other kinds of movements, let's call them more technocratic. They are against party politics, they want to them femoral for different reason, of course, to cutting the number of the overall number of member of the Italian Parliament's but for different reasons. So which which makes, you know, everything much, much more complicated. But we have to distinguish between this top down approach to politics and this bottom up approach. And again, I agree with, with Alex to just say these three come together to see all the variety, distinguish of the variety of populations in in Italy right now.

James Downes  14:27  
Thanks a lot, both for those fascinating answers. to that question. I just wanted to take a little bit deeper and ask you both about what you think will be the likely result for the for the outcome for the constitutional referendum.

Alessio Scopelliti  14:43  
So I think that the results of the constitutional referendum would be the rich will pass. There is a wide consensus regarding this referendum actually, it is an historical and ideological political theory. fight in Italy, it was our with many from since many years to go to count the number of members of parliament. And, of course, I think that this referendum is clearly a product of Italian populism, by the way it did. This referendum was an initiative of the foster moment, which goal was to fight the caste identified by the Parliament and the privileges of the of the members of parliament. And, of course, the main goal of this party since 2013. Is and I quote, to open the parliament's like a can of tuna. All right. So there is a great consensus to from the electorate to support this referendum, not only the five star movements, but also the democrat democratic party that is supporting these, this referendum. So all the majority of the government is supporting it, but not only the majority, but also the opposition from the right wing coalition is supporting this referendum.

Valerio Alfonso Bruno  16:03  
I agree with the with the less so quite, you know, likely and even more, it's very likely that the referendum will pass according to the latest poll that were available till the true fan of mistaking the two of September, like 70% of the people will vote to in favour of the cutting the Italian parliament member of the Parliament. For example, I want to mention that today. There was a interesting article about Roberto Saviano which is an important intellectual living lottery was a few years ago, a best selling book Gomorrah, and Ito has always been a champion of the centre left of the pasture democratical however, there was no like a carnival. Between Saviano and the establishment of the partial democratico with Roberto Saviano heavily criticised, for example, cigarettes or a fancy scheme or other leaders of the PD, because they weren't following the you know, the momento she was stolen the other party of the opposition in this popular history no move to cut in order to register number of the NPC in Italy. And then it's so it's awkward because the the this establishment of the pasture democratico the reply to Saviano it's like you don't see our strategy. 

James Downes  18:11  
Thanks a lot for that analysis. So Alessio, you just mentioned Cas Mudde a few moments ago about this kind of definition of you know, probably the most widely accepted definition of populism that's out there. And so this actually got me thinking about a Twitter exchange that I saw yesterday taking place. So just for those viewers who are tuning into this episode, we've recorded this on the 11th of September, so that Twitter exchange was yesterday on the 10th of September. And this is a Twitter exchange between valaria and also Cas Mudde. And so I saw that Valerio, you had a very interesting Twitter exchange yesterday with Cas Mudde. And you were kind of discussing the mainstreaming of the far right, and also the weakness of the mainstream. And what struck me valaria is you mentioned that the centre left Democratic Party has kind of adapted to several, five star movement positions. And then last time in contrast, you kind of mentioned that it was the five star movement also adapting to Lego to the league. And so I found that very interesting. Overall, do you kind of want to say anything it really briefly about this point?

Valerio Alfonso Bruno  19:20  
Yeah, I would say it's very interesting because in the the forming or it's a coalition government, which is more like a named after a contract between the the leg of the momentum was stellar, the the, all the favours, let's say, what were we the momentum was stellar, but in a few months, the leg and the ability of solving was really able to cannibalise to completely ensure paradise the mentorship was stellar, with politics against the illegal immigration to tweet Tally and on several this year

So just before the pandemics the we might have increased a lot so with the change of the leadership with the denial leaving the secretary actually the role of the leader of the Five Star Movement was really no negative you know, moment for the five star moments it comes out a bit as a surprise first of all the battle democratical decided to to agree to stay with the organisation but still of course there are a electoral reason before that before that before this decision

I really don't see why all this necessity to adopt to follow the Five Star Movement you know, you know domain which is really not within the overall scope of the path to democratical Why is this isn't to follow the the magician was telling his populist you know, domain uncertain Aria

as a lead source mentioned at the beginning of the interview, a cultural and you know, like sociological reason it's really the the the Italian electorate moving towards, you know, more radical kind of populism. Otherwise, it's not really norm easy to explain. However, according to the latest poll, even also because you know, with the COVID with a little bit changed the cards on the on the table, the pasture democratical has been gaining some some support. Run now it's falling around the 20%. Something similar for the mentorship extended service, awkward, I would say coalition between orientation Christelle and Pastor democratico. Which was really not considered by many analysts does that able to survive? Maybe because of the copy that I don't know the answer, but right now, if you take also other parties like Italia Viva established by Bahrain, CCC italiana, according to the latest poll, they will even be able to intervene against a radical right of centre right coalition because I will say the localism format by the Lega infotrie Italia right now is no more a centre, right? What's the role of fidelity doll is very, really marginal 6%. So for say, Dalia, it's very much in 6%.

Unknown Speaker  22:51  
Even less, so.

Valerio Alfonso Bruno  22:55  
I mean, perhaps the move was not so. So so bad. But the fact that is that you know, for food or pasture democratically decided to follow the momentum increased along on a populist trend. Let's see if it will pay in the in the future.

James Downes  23:16  
Thanks a lot. Thanks a lot for area. So Alessio, do you want to come come in on this?

Alessio Scopelliti  23:22  
Yeah, thank you. I would just say, if you think it was interesting to read the exchange between Carson Valeri on Twitter about this, this this topic, because I think we can compare it to kind of political context, were really interesting to different political contexts, which was the first contact cabinet and the second the contact cabinet in a sense that we have the same Prime Minister, but two completely different governments. And as well, as you said, the party the democratic was affected by the poster moments, because the expectation to build a new a new alliance to form between the first moments and the Democratic Party was to manipulate the folks there are moments since basing on the experience of the previous government, since the first moment was manipulated by the astonishing capacity of Matteo salvini. To determine the political agenda of the government during the first contact cabinet. I think that the Democratic Party has failed with this intent, it is more the foster moments who is manipulating the democratic party now. And we can see now with the next

James Downes  24:34  
reference, kind of on a similar line or a similar tangent, a question that I had next kind of, you know, not not being a specialist in Italy or not knowing it, you know, a great deal on Italian politics that I had was about kind of the overall electoral failure or kind of lack of fortunes in the last couple of years for the Italian five star movement. So why do you think Firstly, that the Italian five Stop movement is an electoral decline, and other any hopes electorally speaking for the five star movements in the future. I mean, did a for example, that he has the least to have a younger vote base that would stay with them in the future that could kind of act as a kind of buffer for the party in the future.

Alessio Scopelliti  25:18  
So I personally think that the electoral decline that foster movements is experiencing now is because this party is moment has failed. It's experienced at the majoritarian part as majoritarian party, forming an Italian government. And what I mean from that is that since the foster moment started his political journey as a candidate in domestic elections, it has always experienced the watchdog role from the position trying to impact the political agenda of the current government. And, indeed, when this five star moments, wasn't the position, it has always pushed its political narrative around the ideology of the people versus the corrupted elite, by claiming that they were the expression of the general will of the people, however, since it joined the government, and I would like to remember that the first moment is the majoritarian Party and the Italian Prime Minister is indeed a representative of the moment, it has slowly betrayed some fundamental principles of the party. Like, for instance, the maximum limit of returns to be elected, or the use of the parliamentary immunity, for instance, and many other ideological fights like passing from a strong Euroscepticism to a soft reset. This is even voting in the European Parliament for the current European Commission. So despite his party was able to collect the electoral consent, working from the position, especially from young people, especially people coming from the south of Italy, thanks to all the promises that they were delivering in their political narrative and political agenda. Actually, I think that right now, this party has failed its experience in the government. And I think that the next domestic election will be significant for the future of the party.

Valerio Alfonso Bruno  27:02  
Yes, I agree with the points violaceum. Overall, the momento she was stellar, let's say betrayed its

As I told you earlier, right now that the this slowly, you know, let's say recovery, it's falling around 20%, the mind doesn't quite stand. So it's not so bad. Of course, it's very important to consider the possible future role of just epic counter. The Italian Prime Minister, which is known, it's really not clear. so far. Of course, as as we, we will know, there was a rally around the flag effect. We know, because of the covid 19 pandemic. Many people were no felt, you know, reassured by by county, even if you had to take you know, some, you know, very, very unpopular decisions. So, I would say it's not, you know, very, very easy to make a forecast concerning the future in Italy, we started this interview talking about no volatility and stability. So, it really will, will depend on the Yes, and the fortune of the mentorship was stellar. I mean, they will can have now the possibility to, to play and to play well, these, you know, not coming months. The Lega is struggling, okay, you can say back to fidelity Dahlia. On the other side. It's it's gaining a lot. But as I told you earlier, right now, the two, let's call them the two colleagues from the one which is the monetization Christelle and actually democratico. And the other one, the radical, right, because it's none more possible to talk about centre right? coalition, my contribution, that really, at the moment, they're really neck to neck. So, as I said, it really will depend on the on counter. It will depend on the other consideration, like for example, the outer pandemic evolves. In the future our data are we react to this run now Italy in comparison to other countries like France, like UK like Spain, the first month like March It was a very bad situation in Italy. But right now Italy in comparison to this country is doing well, we don't tend the case of COVID-19 as much as in Spain or as in France. So it's so it's so to see, I would say and let me tell you that it will also depend on the the result of the election in the US in the united states in the US, because the case of another victory of Trump, this could be no sort of possibility to galvanise the bot fratelli d'Italia and leg up and the path of Salvy. So it also depends on on that we have to proceed to the other side of the Atlantic, and to wait till November and wait, what we let them.

James Downes  30:58  
Fact. Thanks a lot, Valerio. It's really interesting, that you mentioned about, you know, you mentioned the rally around the flag effect that we've seen, you know, within the covid 19 pandemic. And actually, you know, Valerio, both you and I wrote that piece a couple of months back now, for Rand media, where we our main argument was that, obviously, there's a lot of complexity in terms of whether the far right or the radical right has declined, electrically speaking at the comparative level. But we do see that radical right politics, particularly the part of the RFA, the Alternative for Germany, the alternative for Deutschland party has seen, you know, a reduction in the vote share and a number of third parties have seen a reduction in their vote share across Europe. So clearly, the covid 19 pandemic has, you know, not just had a profound effect on Italian politics, as you were just mentioning, but also has had a profound effect on European politics as a whole, both in Western Europe, central Eastern Europe, you know, we saw the so called enabling law, the Enabling Act that was put into place by the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban of the Fidesz party. And then we've also seen this play out at the EU level in terms of the European Union commission level as well, with the, you know, the EU council summit that was kind of held recently that was also kind of a very highly politically charged and volatile occasion. So really briefly, I was just wondering if I'd if you could just very briefly explain about the perhaps the differences in Italy between the North versus the South. Let's say that there are some listeners listening in right now. Alessio, you just mentioned about five star movement, for example, getting a large share of voters from the south, I was just wondering, Is this still this kind of big historical divide between between these two different parts of Italy from from a regional perspective? And now the reason why I kind of asked this is that it's quite interesting when we look at some modern kind of populist parties like the the AfD party in Germany, which arguably has kind of a more extremist, ideological section in Eastern Germany, when you compare it to the more kind of moderate populist radical right party structure and ideology that that this type of party has in Western Germany. It's just wondering a little bit more, perhaps Alessio or valaria? What, what your thoughts are on that?

Alessio Scopelliti  33:27  
So yeah, of course, there is a great distinction between the north and the south of Italy in terms of the kind of electorate that we have. There is a according to the last elections in 2018, there was a really big support from the, for the folks that are moments from the southern regions. Because, as he said, of the several promises that the face moment, said in the entire political manifestos like giving a universal way, each according to their citizenship, or other policies in order to redistribute the wealth to the poorest people. In the north, we have a different kind of electorate and more link to business to industry to factory. There is, I would say also a traditional electorate linked to the league, because we have to remind anyway that the league was previously named as a northern league. It was originally his party was a party founded on classical cleavages, and now it has changed, it has developed to a new national perspective. So I would say that the great success in their mouth was due First of all, to the kind of electorate they addressed the right wing coalition to the business, liberalism, and of course against immigration. On the other hand, I thought I think that there is a really strong part of this Next reading the novel which is still linked to the previous party originally spotted that was the league as Northern League.

Valerio Alfonso Bruno  35:10  
Yes, I agree there is still a huge difference between an Northern side of Italy and Southern Italy.

from Napoli by now my, my perspective is in most of you know, young C's and euro young Italian, southern part of Italy, they you know harbour a lot of frustration. I know personally many people that had to leave Napoli or other parts of the Southern Italy to to to go to north of Italy or even know, like abroad to European Union to Australia to so it's kind of no try to find a fortune abroad, which is very, very sad. But it's it's always known for historical reason. It's not something not too easy to fix. And it comes out a little bit as a as a surprise that the last years the Lego, which has less to say the originally was was named Lega Nord. Quite a big success in many areas of Southern Italy. Right now, according to the latest, you know, ball systems ruling in the client getting the in the south, going like two to 3% of supporting in overall in in southern Italy. And anecdotally speaking the last few times that salvini came to to Napoli castelvetrano Cha arias with the Latino illegal immigrants from from Africa, the most of the napoletana the Nepali times they completely rejected him. They didn't want him to come in to speak against you know, the, you know, the possibility to strategically immigrants with the with the banks with you know, the possibility to spread the virus. So, I would say yes, there is like a huge no still a huge divide between the North and the South. The monumental thing is that Five Star Movement sought to capitalise  on these on these frustrations. There are many now most of the people of this movie mentor right now it's no more are we meant to wholesale is a classical party, thereby echoing Five Star Movement. Past most of the establishment mentor come from the from the south. If you take for example, the MA yo if you take Roberto Fico, they are all from you know, Southern Italy. I don't know the future the voters from from Southern Italy they will give their trust in electoral terms to again to the managing personnel. But for sure, I mean, they will not give the trust again to to sell being and to Lega.

James Downes  38:23  
Thanks a lot both. That was really fascinating. We both mentioned about the North versus South divide. And I definitely learned a lot more than and I think our viewers will also learn a lot more as well. So two very difficult questions then to finish off this podcast episode. So the first question for you both is just again, very briefly, what would be your predictions for the future populism in Italian politics, let's say after the covid 19 pandemic is over? And secondly, speaking? Again, a very, very difficult question. Can you make any predictions about the upcoming 2020 US presidential election in November between the incumbent incumbent President Trump and the challenger the Democratic candidate Joe Biden. So for viewers again, we're recording this episode on the 11th of September 2020, and it appears that Biden is still quite far ahead or considerably ahead of Trump in the polls. However, recent opinion polls appear to show a slight reduction in support for Biden across a number of states. So I know that this podcast episode is focused much more on Italy as well. But I think it's also quite interesting to perhaps generalise this a little bit. And, you know, if you can both, you know, make some, perhaps a brief prediction of what you think could happen

Alessio Scopelliti  39:39  
there answering to the first part of this question, according to the literature, through basically I would say that properties tend to survive and develop alongside of the development of crisis. It can be a migratory crisis and economic crisis, or what we are witnessing nowadays a pandemic crisis. As such, I would say that's true. Depends on how the Italian government will handle that. And then, despite the worries of general disappointment towards the government on how its organised the the beginning of the new academic year in school, I think that the pivotal step will be how the Italian government will handle the next moment of crisis, because I think it will be impossible for the governments to prevent a new pandemic crisis, new waves or period of lock downs. But the real challenge for the government will be how much the national health system will sustain the impact of the waves and how much the government will invest in infrastructure that will support Italian lifestyle during the next waves. But again, it's really interesting question, because we have to consider that populism currently is surviving, both in the government and in the opposition. So it will really depend which kind of populism will survive after the COVID. And then, on the one hand, we have the public as an ideology, people versus the elite and on the other hand, populism as communicate strategy. And answering the second the second question regarding regarding the upcoming 2020 years presidential election. If I think that if it wasn't for COVID-19, Trump would have really good chance to win the next election. However, I think it was the advent of the COVID has revealed the many social and cultural contradictions in American society. And the social tensions emerged by COVID was the detonator of social tensions provoked by institutionalised the crisis, for instance. However, I think that in this new political context I think it's quite similar to the previous presidential elections, in a sense that the electorate, the electorate, is significantly significantly polarised and Trump is currently assessing the most charismatic leader in this competition. So I would even think that Democrats might win again, the popular vote, but we don't know if they will definitely win the presidential election. I can also see that both candidates had they have similar and the same time antithetic narrow political narratives on the one hand, Biden is arguing that Trump is a threat for democracy, while Trump claims that Biden will be a threat for law in order, right. But I think that if Biden wants to have more chance to win this election, he should shift his political campaign more about how Trump administration handled the pandemic crisis and talking more about the imminent economic recession.

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